The American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index for October is a lesson in “cautious optimism.” After 20 months of decline, October’s score finally inched over 50. A score above 50 indicates an increase in billings from the previous month.
“Billings finally stabilized this month, and firms are feeling more optimistic about revenue projections for 2025,” said AIA chief economist Kermit Baker. “Overall, 41 percent of responding-firm leaders expect to see net revenue growth from 2024 to 2025, with 32 percent projecting growth in the 5 percent to 9 percent range.”
In the report summary, the AIA said that October’s “score indicates a balance between the number of firms experiencing a decrease in billings and those seeing an increase.” The AIA also remarked that architecture firms reported an October increase in inquiries for new projects, a trend seen for the last few months as well.
However, the value of design contracts fell for the seventh consecutive month. The report relayed survey results that asked respondent firms about their revenue for the year and whether it was below, met or above their expectations. According to the survey, 26 percent of firms reported estimates “somewhat less” than what they had anticipated, 13 percent reported “significantly less” than what they had thought and just over 25 percent reported higher than expected revenue.
In addition to the national average, the AIA’s billings index also records scores regionally. In a turn of events from recent months, only the South inched over 50 in October, reporting a score of 52.1. The region with the lowest October score was the Northeast at 45.6, a drop from September.
As for the building sectors, firms specializing in institutional projects reported the highest billings growth at 50.5, while those concentrating on multifamily residential again recorded declining billings at 45.6.
This turn of events and renewed “cautious optimism” came before the election and post-election stock market surge, as well as the Federal Reserve’s second slash to interest rates this year. It’s fair to assume that architecture firm owners and economists are looking to the third Wednesday in December, when November’s billings index will drop.